Why Pope Francis’ Asia and Oceania trip is a security headache

Pope Francis will embark next month on the longest trip of his pontificate — and maybe one of his more perilous

Pope Francis will embark next month on the longest trip of his pontificate — and perhaps also one of his more perilous.

Pope Francis, pictured during a general audience on Oct. 15, 2014. © Mazur/catholicnews.org.uk.

Could his Sept. 2-13 visit to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore really be more dangerous than his journeys to the Central African Republic and Iraq?

That’s hard to say, but the 87-year-old pope’s more than 20,000-mile trip across two continents is replete with security challenges, including terrorism, tribal violence, and even clashes between rival martial arts groups. 

Here’s a brief look at the main concerns ahead of the September trip. 

🇮🇩 Indonesia

Pope Francis will begin his visit Sept. 3 in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest country. He will be the third pope to land on Indonesian soil after Paul VI in 1970 and John Paul II in 1989.

Indonesia is the country with the world’s biggest Islamic population. An estimated 87% of the nation’s more than 270 million people are Muslim. Christians, the largest religious minority, account for around 11%.

According to Jakarta’s Cardinal Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo, Indonesia’s two largest Islamic organizations, Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama, are “very open and tolerant.”

But Indonesia has suffered dozens of terrorist attacks in the first decades of the 21st century. Sometimes attackers have focused on the Christian minority. In 2021, for example, suicide bombers targeted Mass-goers outside of the Sacred Heart Cathedral in Makassar, South Sulawesi. (No one was killed other than the perpetrators.)

Indonesian authorities will be on high alert during Pope Francis’ Sept. 3-6 visit. Their fears are likely to have increased following an incident on July 31, when a counter-terrorism squad seized a 19-year-old suspected of planning to bomb places of worship in Malang, in the province of East Java.

A day later, on Aug. 1, members of Indonesia’s National Counter Terrorism Agency inspected Jakarta Cathedral, where the pope is due to meet with members of the Catholic community Sept. 4.

Stanislaus Riyanta, a researcher in intelligence, security, and terrorism at the University of Indonesia, told UCA News that the government needed to monitor the possibility of lone-wolf attacks. But overall, he expressed confidence in Indonesia’s security apparatus. 

“I believe the security and intelligence forces are capable of it,” he said.

🇵🇬  Papua New Guinea

Indonesia’s neighbor, Papua New Guinea, had a difficult start to 2024. On Jan. 10, riots broke out in the capital, Port Moresby, where Pope Francis will touch down Sept. 6. 

Francis will be the second pope to visit Papua New Guinea, where roughly a quarter of the roughly 10 million-strong population is Catholic, after John Paul II in 1984 and 1995.

The violence in January, triggered by a reduction in security officers’ salaries and proposed tax changes, spread to other cities in the roughly 10 million-strong country, resulting in an estimated 22 deaths. Prime Minister James Marape declared a 14-day state of emergency, as the country reeled from what became known as “Black Wednesday.” 

Reflecting on the violence, Cardinal John Ribat, the first Papua New Guinean to receive the red hat, said: “What we have built with our leaders over 49 years of independence was destroyed within a day.”

Trouble continued in February, when at least 26 people died in a gun battle between tribes in the country’s remote highlands, which are rich in natural resources, including gold. The incident underlined that the country’s long-running tribal disputes are becoming more deadly due to an influx of modern firearms. 

Pope Francis initially hoped to visit the country in 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted his plans. But as the trip finally came into focus at the start of this year, the post of apostolic nuncio to Papua New Guinea — a crucial role in any papal visit — remained vacant. A nuncio, Archbishop Mauro Lalli, was only appointed in March this year.

The most recent national census, in 2011, found that 98% of Papua New Guineans identified as Christian. There has been a push this year to alter the country’s constitution to define Papua New Guinea as a Christian state. But the move, driven by Evangelical groups, has faced opposition from the Catholic Church, which described it as “anachronistic and disruptive.”

A pointed letter from the bishops’ conference to the country’s constitutional and law reform commission said: “While PNG already has the KJV Bible in the House since 2015 and boasts about being over 90% Christian, we see no reduction in corruption, violence, lawlessness, and offensive conduct of parliamentary debate.” 

A Vatican advance team made a second and final visit to Port Moresby in June. Organizers will be hoping there is no more unrest before the papal visit.

🇹🇱 East Timor

East Timor, also known as Timor-Leste, stands out among the four stops during Pope Francis’ trip. Its 1.3 million population is 97% Catholic. Around 700,000 people — more than half the population — are expected to attend the Sept. 10 papal Mass in the capital, Dili.

Given its small size, East Timor is reportedly receiving help with papal visit security from its neighbor Indonesia and the Five Eyes intelligence alliance of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.

Security will be tightened considerably during the pope’s Sept. 9-11 visit. Precautions include an extension of a national ban on martial arts training. According to the country’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão, the extension is not intended as a punishment, but to prevent street fights breaking out between students of opposing martial arts groups.

🇸🇬 Singapore

The island country of Singapore is regarded as one of the world’s most politically stable nations. But even here, on the last stop of the papal visit, there are risks.

The main threat comes not from within the prosperous city-state of around five million people, but from the wider region. 

In neighboring Malaysia, which has a majority-Muslim population, militant groups are expected to hold rallies against the Sept. 11-13 papal visit. The country is said to have seen a sharp rise in anti-Israel sentiment amid the war in Gaza. 

Aruna Gopinath, who has served as a professor at the National Defence University of Malaysia, told UCA News bluntly that “the pontiff picked the wrong time to come [to Singapore].” 

“With Singapore seen as pro-Israel, the pope’s visit will certainly ignite diehard pro-Islamic groups,” she said. “There should be full surveillance in Malaysia.”

Other experts highlight the possibility of a lone-wolf attack, as in Indonesia, by individuals inspired by groups such as Islamic State or al-Qaeda.

A threat assessment report published this year said that “while there is no indication of an imminent attack, the terrorism threat to Singapore remains high.”