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Jan 21, 2022Liked by Brendan Hodge

I have spent alot of time in Ireland over the years, including in the run-up to the referendum legalizing abortion. Most observers believe that the rapid transition of Ireland from a nation that embedded additional pro-life protections in its constitution with popular support to one that moved to full legalization in a generation was tied to collapse of the authority of the Church on moral matters.

Now the troubles of the Catholic Church in Ireland are sadly multiple and long-lasting, but when it comes to its loss of moral authority I would argue it stems to a large extent from its entanglement, both by necessity and as policy, with the government of an independent Ireland. The Church had close relations with the two party duopoly that ruled Ireland after independence and was able to play an important role not only in policy but also in the provision of education and other welfare services.

That allowed them to accomplish much good, but meant that when the Celtic Tiger imploded and the political establishment that the Church had become entangled with was spectacularly discredited (especially Fianna Fail, which as the dominant party always tried to stay onside with the Church) the Church's moral authority was crippled. True, it was already under attack for a variety of scandals but many of those scandals were a unique outgrowth of its quasi-state sponsored services -- the abuses committed in Church run borstals, schools and homes for unwed mothers were arguably just as much a function of a poor country underfunding basic services as unique problems of the Church. T

The result regardless was clear: The Church was seen as part of the Fianna Fail- Fianna Gael order, and paid a price for it. New leaders of the old parties emerged who ferociously attacked the Church to prove they were different and parties that were always anti-clerical grew in strength. The Church couldn't pivot with quite the shamelessness of political hacks and it remained and remains tainted by political failures, political hypocrisy and moral failures of the old order.

By 2016, for a variety of complicated and perhaps unavoidable reasons, the pro-life cause had become wholly identified with the Republican party, and the Republican party was rapidly going through a profound change. The established pro-life movement should have perhaps borne in mind the example of Ireland before allowing this process to accelerate to the point where a extraordinarily polarizing US President was allowed to hijack their events and MAGA hats became visible at the March for Life.

The graphs above show support for pro-life positions declining very slowly for a decade or so, with a much sharper decline around Trump's election. That may, of course, be just an outgrowth of general hyper polarization and sorting. But Ireland seems to show that a movement ultimately dependent on a simple, clear and correct moral message may lose far more than it gains from becoming intertwined with politics.

If your position based entirely on moral arguments becomes indistinguishable in the minds of a large part of the population with secular amorality and hypocrisy, don't be surprised if popular support declines in the long term. That is the lesson of Ireland.

Of course, say what you will about Charlie Haughey, he went to mass now and again.

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