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Conclave Day 1: Head check, heart check, gut check
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Conclave
—
Smoke Signals

Conclave Day 1: Head check, heart check, gut check

The first vote is underway - here's what we think, hope, and feel

Ed. Condon
and
JD Flynn
May 07, 2025
∙ Paid
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Conclave Day 1: Head check, heart check, gut check
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Cardinals processing into the Sistine chapel, May 7, 2025. Image via Vatican Media.

The conclave has officially begun, with the 133 cardinal electors now finally and formally removed to the Sistine chapel for their first round of voting.

After months of quiet questioning, and weeks of open discussion and debate about what kind of pope the Church needs, the ballots begin this evening.

Almost no one would predict even the possibility of white smoke on the first round — more likely it will show a few front runners with a few dozen votes and a handful of other single digit surprises.

What comes next depends on who you ask — some see a divided set of electors and no obvious candidate to unite them and expect a relatively “long-clave” stretching into the weekend. Others, after two of the shortest conclaves in history in 2013 and 2005, predict the pressure to deliver a result will force consensus within the first two days.

Pillar editors JD Flynn and Ed Condon have their own ideas, too. So they weigh in here with a “head check, heart check, gut check,” telling you what they think, what they hope, and what they feel is going to happen.

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