Counting to 89: Who can, what if they can’t, and then what?
There are a couple of ways and a couple of cardinals who might get to two-thirds of the electoral votes - and a few surprises possible if they don't
After nearly two weeks of public mourning and private politicking, it is now fewer than two days until 133 cardinals retreat into conclave and begin the actual business of voting for the next pope.
A week is a very long time in politics, and even longer ahead of one of the most open papal elections in a half-century. And while the front runners remain the same, more or less, none of the names in common conversation look likely to march into Wednesday’s first ballot with numbers enough to persuade undecided cardinals that they are the inevitable choice.
Shortly after the funeral of Pope Francis, supporters of Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the erstwhile Secretary of State, were quietly confident that he would muster as many as 50 of the 89 votes needed to be elected when the first ballot is held Wednesday afternoon.
You don’t hear that kind of confidence, or the number 50, being put around quite so much now, after the cardinals have had a few days to reflect on his record in office and his personal reputation as a (un)reliable leader, though he still seems likely to poll at around 40.
Similarly, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle emerged early as the other front runner, drawing very heavily on the expanded block of Asian cardinals and being pitched as the kind of young, dynamic preacher and emotional communicator who could continue in the Francis line.
He, too, has faced some searching questions about his questionable record as an administrator, and his ability to stand firm in a standoff, either within the Church or with outside figures. But he, too, like Parolin, still seems likely to be able to count on around 40 votes in the first round.
As Parolin and Tagle have stalled in the past week, perhaps even losing a bit of ground, Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, Francis’ prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, began drawing increased support, operating from a strong base in South America, where he spent much of his ministry as a priest and bishop in Peru, coupled with active advocates from among some North American cardinals.
But, even with an assumed majority among the South and Central American electors, and the support of cardinals like Chicago’s Blase Cupich and the nuncio to the United States Cardinal Christophe Pierre, he doesn’t appear to have a unanimous grip on the Americas vote, nor has he seemed to have yet cut deep enough into the European voting block to overtake Tagle or Parolin.
While the momentum is with him, for the moment, Prevost faces his own serious questions, and probably can expect a vote count in the low 30s for the first day — though that could grow.
Last in the gang of four front runners, for the moment, is the Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, who remains the unshakable consensus choice of the conservative block of the electors. Though the certainty with which they are sticking with their man — and the extent to which he continues to draw neither special scrutiny nor enthusiasm from the other electors — suggests he can probably rely on rock-solid support around 30, but seems unlikely to rise much higher than that, unless something unexpected happens.
But if all this is the general state of play on Wednesday’s first vote, what happens on Thursday — or Friday for that matter? It is by no means straightforward, and could get very interesting indeed.