The short and the long of conclave timing
Whether the conclave takes 'just a few days' or just a few days more could make all the difference to the result
The date has been formally set for the beginning of the conclave, which will begin May 7. It is the first day allowed under the norms of Universi Dominici Gregis, the constitution on papal elections, which says it “must” begin after fifteen full days have elapsed following the death of the pope.
Some had been speculating, perhaps a little feverishly, that there were underhanded moves afoot to kick things off early. Others had floated the idea that the cardinals might delay heading into the Sistine chapel for a few days more.
In reality, and in law, neither was ever really a live possibility.
Although the law allows for the cardinals to meet early “if it is clear that all the cardinal electors are present,” by the last count I saw, only 120 of the 135 were at Tuesday’s general congregation.
Apart from the fact that “all” means “all,” that provision of the law was created by Benedict XVI, who preannounced his own resignation by a number of weeks, and obviously didn’t need nine days of mourning or a papal funeral of his own. That’s not the situation here.
Similarly, the cardinals have the option of delaying the conclave for as many as five further days “for serious reasons.”
While a handful might welcome the chance to get better acquainted with each other in the relatively relaxed setting of the general congregations, that’s not really what the law has in mind, either — it is meant to accommodate some serious disruption to international travel for a portion of the voters.
But, while the conclave will begin exactly when it is meant to, when it ends is certainly up to the cardinal electors and no one else. And how quickly they feel they need to pick the next pope will likely be a determinative factor on who is elected.
Predictions vary, even amongst the cardinal electors, about how long the conclave might go.
Cardinal Rainer Maria Woelki of Cologne has said he is expecting a “longer, more complex conclave” because of the “heterogeneous” make up of the electors, the majority of whom are new to this, and have had little chance to get to know each other.
Münich’s Cardinal Reinhard Marx, on the other hand, has predicted a short conclave of “just a few days.”
While few are predicting an extended session stretching into weeks, even “just a few days” can be an eternity for the cardinals, and the difference of, say, 48 hours might make an enormous difference to the result.