‘We’re the ones who choose the man’

Vatican correspondent notes on papal stability, papal souvenirs, and papal uncertainty

We’re just days away from the start of the conclave to elect the next pope.

Souvenirs in St Peter’s Square. Credit: JD Flynn/Pillar Media.

And while the 133 cardinal electors bring a wide array of priorities into the Sistine Chapel, one word keeps surfacing: Stability.

Of course, stability means different things for different people. Some are looking for a successor who will deepen the legacy of Pope Francis and build on his reforms. Others want a pope who won’t necessarily undo the past 12 years, but brings more doctrinal clarity to the office.

Namely, there’s a desire for continuity sans the “hagan lío” or for a slight change in direction.

Ambiguity marked much of Francis’ pontificate. A large number of unclear statements and documents was a source of concern, even for a lot of theologically moderate cardinals, and many believe that confusion deepened polarization in the Church.

But the main focus seems to be a pope who continues with the internal reforms Francis started –and applied to an unequal degree of success– on abuse, finance, and governance, while working on lowering the temperature within the Church.

Another word that I’ve heard a lot these days is “evangelization,” which, in my opinion, is an encouraging sign.

But there seems to be as many definitions of evangelization as cardinal electors.

For some, focusing on evangelization would mean electing a John Paul III-kind-of-figure. For others, it would mean to talk boldly and clearly about doctrinal matters, while others believe it should be about prioritizing vocations, and some think it’s about deepening the synodal project of Pope Francis — or even all four at the same time.

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I had heard speculation about preference for a shorter papacy, but many cardinals believe that’s too hard to calculate.

One non-voting cardinal told me “I’ve witnessed a 65-year-old pope that lasted a month, a 58-year-old pope that lasted 27 years, a 78-year-old pope that resigned, and a 76-year-old pope with one lung that lasted 12 years.”

“That’s not a wise calculation to make.”

There’s certainly a preference for a pontificate that lasts about a decade, but many cardinals seem aware that in this day and age, it’s impossible to know how long a pope would last.

“Someone told me as a joke that if we’re looking for a shorter papacy, cardinals should consider Cardinal Re, who’s 91, but did you see him in the funeral? His Eminence could live to 105,” a friend told me these days.

I think that perfectly sums up the feeling about preference for a pontificate’s length.

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The two frontrunners are still Cardinals Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle, but the road to 89 votes seems to be getting tougher for them.

Parolin has been affected by news coming from China and the UK, and many within the college seem unconvinced by him.

“You can’t vote for someone simply because they’re Italian and allegedly close to Francis,” a cardinal told The Pillar.

Some media reports have indicated that Parolin promised some conservative cardinals to overturn Traditiones custodes and Fiducia supplicans to garner their support. If true, that would perhaps signal that Parolin’s math is not adding up.

Tagle is appreciated by many moderates and progressive cardinals as a continuity pope, but many are concerned about his administrative issues leading Caritas, even many in the “progressive” camp.

“I don’t see him getting to two thirds with all that happened to him in Caritas. There’s concern from even some cardinals who are not that traditional, but the perception that he’s not doctrinally orthodox makes it worse for him,” another cardinal told The Pillar.

Thus, it seems some of Tagle’s supporters are pivoting towards Cardinal Robert Prevost, Prefect of the Dicastery For Bishops, as a plan B, while some European cardinals are pushing Jean-Marc Aveline, Archbishop of Marseille as a possibility.

The pitch is that both Prevost and Aveline would bring the needed stability, without major doctrinal changes, while they would be more tolerant of traditionalists and conservatives in the Church.

If you ask me, it seems many conservatives are unconvinced.

However, sources have told us that European conservative cardinals are uncoordinated. They speak with clarity in the general congregations, but seem to lack any positive vision of what the Church should do, and who’s the man to lead it — and they’re not working together.

Many European and North American conservatives seem to be eager to support Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, but tend at the same time to stipulate — without explaining exactly why —- that Erdo probably doesn’t have much of a chance to become pope.

Conservatives from the Global South are apparently supporting a bid by Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of Kinsasha to become pope, but some European conservative cardinals remain unconvinced.

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Since the death of Pope Francis, something has bugged me. Bugged our whole newsroom, actually. It’s a dumb thing, but the question hasn’t left my mind.

What do papal souvenirs vendors do to have new papal souvenirs ready? How long does it take to have t-shirts, rosaries, plates, and calendars with the face and name of the new pope?

So, with my broken Italian I went and asked some vendors.

Turns out, most of these stores need a permit from the Vatican governorate to be able to sell papal merchandise. There are some unofficial vendors, but Italian police every now and then seizes their counterfeit goods.

Just last week there was a large police operation to that end.

I asked some of the official vendors and they told me that it should take them somewhere between 10 days and two weeks to have the new souvenirs lined up, considering the time it takes to renew the licenses, and to actually order and printing the merchandise.

A part of me thought that somewhere in a far-flung sweatshop warehouse there were some t-shirts with Cardinal Angelo Scola’s face and the name “John Paul III,” rotting since 2013, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

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It is yet unclear to me whether any of the names above has a clear path to the 89 votes needed to become pope.

As I said above, Tagle and Parolin are the frontrunners, but as time goes by, the door seems to be closing for them, for different reasons.

And I’m also unsure whether Prevost or Ambongo could make it. And I’m pretty sure Erdo won’t. Maybe that’s just instinct, but it is my feeling in talking with people over these last weeks.

It may sound like a cliché, but part of the reason why is that many cardinals simply don’t know each other well enough, and some take their jobs seriously enough not to give their automatic vote to any of the above.

I was initially skeptical about the claim that the cardinals didn’t know each other. Many of them came to Rome for the synod on synodality or some of the predating synods. Others are quite travelled, or studied in Rome, or keep in touch online.

But it seems to be a reality, with one cardinal telling me that before the general congregations he knew about 30 cardinals in total. And I’m talking about someone who was not made a cardinal in the last two consistories.

“It seems that maybe it was time for a pope from Asia or Africa, from one of these regions where the Church is thriving, but many cardinals just don’t know them, it’s difficult,” another cardinal told me.

So, this really opens the door for a lot of uncertainty.

I might be wrong, and I usually am with these things, and the conclave could be done in a couple of days. Any information I receive is always partial, even if I speak with cardinals from all across the spectrum and from different parts of the world.

But the setup seems to be perfect for a conclave that goes beyond three days and ends up with a surprise name.

Many cardinals don’t seem to have made their minds up yet and are taking their jobs quite seriously, perhaps even more than I ever expected.

The other day I was telling a cardinal that I was slightly worried about the conclave, but that I trusted in the Holy Spirit.

His reply: “The Holy Spirit helps us, but, unfortunately, we’re the ones who choose the man.”